January 31, 2005
Countdown - January 31, 2005 (8:00-9:00 P.M. ET)
'Countdown with Keith Olbermann' for Jan. 31
Host: Keith Olbermann
Topics/Guests:
WHAT IS THE U.S. EXIT STRATEGY IN IRAQ? Tom Squitieri, USA Today
WHAT WILL INSURGENTS IN IRAQ DO NEXT?: Steve Emerson, MSNBC terrorism analyst, author of "Jihad in America"
Dave Attell
Read the transcript to the 8 p.m. ET show
Updated: February 2, 10:40 a.m.
OLBYWATCH GUIDE: You wouldn't believe it if you didn't see it with your own eyes. What kind of OlbyConvergence does KO come up with to report on Hillary Clinton's fainting spell?
Three years and 18 days after President Bush blacked out at the White House during a pretzel malfunction, the junior Senator from New York, Hillary Rodham Clinton, fainted five minutes into a scheduled speech...
After this forced non-sequitur, Olby mentions the mayor of Baghdad's plans to build a statue of President Bush. No surprise, his spin twirls out of control:
Given the fact that Major Fadell is only assuming his office because his predecessor was assasinated 27 days ago, maybe he wants to hold off on this idea a little bit.
And all this crammed into the opening minutes before Keith even gets to reporting the election story, where his lead is not the number of people who voted, but something else:
That the insurgents ultimately had no impact on yesterday's voting turns out to have not been for lack of effort. The number of attacks yesterday, originally reported as eight, is now estimated at 100 by the US military.
Some fun with statistics there from Olby (what constitutes one of those 100 "attacks"?) but guest Steve Emerson didn't bite on any of KO's one-track questions:
Are there expectations or anticipations about any ways the insurgents might change strategies as they try to resume operations?
Let's say that yesterday was a one-day pause...Can that still have a dampening effect on the entirety of the insurgency, on their supporters, on their backers?
Then Olby finally decides to report on the turnout:
[Turnout was] lowest in the Sunni triangle....Some polling stations never even bothered to open. Few voters actually made it to the ones who did. Despite rumors that food rations would be taken away if residents failed to vote.
Several negative anecdotes were hit hard, but Keith just didn't have time to mention how many people did turn out. He had more important fish to fry, like missing money that "happened under the watch of L Paul Bremer". Then, picking up on today's DNC talking points, KO has a discussion of "exit strategy" with Tom Squieteri. After an Al Jazeera item, the #5 story on the backwards countdown finally concludes. But not before Olby can plug the next segment:
While most think the election in Iraq was a success, that has not translated into warm feelings in the neighborhood for the President.
#4: International reaction to the Iraqi elections. Keith Miller's taped, re-cycled report again mentions the phrase of the day, "exit strategy". A David Gregory report speculates on the future of Iraq. A federal judge ruled against "enemy combattant" status. KO even puts a quote from the ruling on the screen. He does mention that this conflicts with an earlier ruling by a different judge, but did Olby give that decision the same prominence as this one?
#3: The Michael Jackson case. 'Nuff said.
#2: Margaret Spellings "jumped the gun" by complaining to PBS about a "Sugar Time" episode that promoted homosexuality. Snidely referring to the program as "dangerous" and "mind-warping", KO added that there was "an implicit threat to cut off funds for PBS". What better time to bring up James Dobson and SpongeBob once again? Another chance to play the video! Then Olby complained that Dobson was encouraging people to send him what KO called "spam". (Oddly enough, Keith considered emails to be "news tips" when they were about VoteFraud2004inOhioButNotPennsylvania.) KO had fun reading some of the sillier messages, as his off-camera crew laughed on cue.
After what seemed like an eternity, Keith finally arrived at the #1 story: beer with caffeine. Does anyone think Olby was on that story long before the program began?
Countdown - January 31, 2005 (8:00-9:00 P.M. ET)
'Countdown with Keith Olbermann' for Jan. 31
Host: Keith Olbermann
Topics/Guests:
WHAT IS THE U.S. EXIT STRATEGY IN IRAQ? Tom Squitieri, USA Today
WHAT WILL INSURGENTS IN IRAQ DO NEXT?: Steve Emerson, MSNBC terrorism analyst, author of "Jihad in America"
Dave Attell
Read the transcript to the 8 p.m. ET show
Updated: February 2, 10:40 a.m.
OLBYWATCH GUIDE: You wouldn't believe it if you didn't see it with your own eyes. What kind of OlbyConvergence does KO come up with to report on Hillary Clinton's fainting spell?
Three years and 18 days after President Bush blacked out at the White House during a pretzel malfunction, the junior Senator from New York, Hillary Rodham Clinton, fainted five minutes into a scheduled speech...
After this forced non-sequitur, Olby mentions the mayor of Baghdad's plans to build a statue of President Bush. No surprise, his spin twirls out of control:
Given the fact that Major Fadell is only assuming his office because his predecessor was assasinated 27 days ago, maybe he wants to hold off on this idea a little bit.
And all this crammed into the opening minutes before Keith even gets to reporting the election story, where his lead is not the number of people who voted, but something else:
That the insurgents ultimately had no impact on yesterday's voting turns out to have not been for lack of effort. The number of attacks yesterday, originally reported as eight, is now estimated at 100 by the US military.
Some fun with statistics there from Olby (what constitutes one of those 100 "attacks"?) but guest Steve Emerson didn't bite on any of KO's one-track questions:
Are there expectations or anticipations about any ways the insurgents might change strategies as they try to resume operations?
Let's say that yesterday was a one-day pause...Can that still have a dampening effect on the entirety of the insurgency, on their supporters, on their backers?
Then Olby finally decides to report on the turnout:
[Turnout was] lowest in the Sunni triangle....Some polling stations never even bothered to open. Few voters actually made it to the ones who did. Despite rumors that food rations would be taken away if residents failed to vote.
Several negative anecdotes were hit hard, but Keith just didn't have time to mention how many people did turn out. He had more important fish to fry, like missing money that "happened under the watch of L Paul Bremer". Then, picking up on today's DNC talking points, KO has a discussion of "exit strategy" with Tom Squieteri. After an Al Jazeera item, the #5 story on the backwards countdown finally concludes. But not before Olby can plug the next segment:
While most think the election in Iraq was a success, that has not translated into warm feelings in the neighborhood for the President.
#4: International reaction to the Iraqi elections. Keith Miller's taped, re-cycled report again mentions the phrase of the day, "exit strategy". A David Gregory report speculates on the future of Iraq. A federal judge ruled against "enemy combattant" status. KO even puts a quote from the ruling on the screen. He does mention that this conflicts with an earlier ruling by a different judge, but did Olby give that decision the same prominence as this one?
#3: The Michael Jackson case. 'Nuff said.
#2: Margaret Spellings "jumped the gun" by complaining to PBS about a "Sugar Time" episode that promoted homosexuality. Snidely referring to the program as "dangerous" and "mind-warping", KO added that there was "an implicit threat to cut off funds for PBS". What better time to bring up James Dobson and SpongeBob once again? Another chance to play the video! Then Olby complained that Dobson was encouraging people to send him what KO called "spam". (Oddly enough, Keith considered emails to be "news tips" when they were about VoteFraud2004inOhioButNotPennsylvania.) KO had fun reading some of the sillier messages, as his off-camera crew laughed on cue.
After what seemed like an eternity, Keith finally arrived at the #1 story: beer with caffeine. Does anyone think Olby was on that story long before the program began?
Sex Indoctrination Controversy Heating Up For Olbermann
The SpongeBob SquarePants brouhaha generated as much smoke as heat, at least regarding the details of how it began and who said what. The mass media did a poor job of accurately presenting story. There have since been articles attempting to clear the smoke. Cox News Service did so last Saturday. And James Dobson himself posted this yesterday. My colleague just now posted (below) what Dobson said about Olbermann.
To be fair, the ultra fast-paced "Aaron Brown-on-speed" format of Countdown is not likely to explore any complex debate with fairness. One is hard-pressed to recall the last time it had. Yet the management that just promoted the admirably fair Brian Williams must be pondering whether or not the person they thought they hired---an offbeat, smart and witty news anchor---hasn't devolved into a flippant, disrespectful left-wing ideologue.
It's one thing to have an opinion and invite a guest with the opposite opinion as a sounding board for a good discussion. That's what most cable shows do. But it's quite another to expect anyone to sit through an hour listening to one viewpoint. That used to be the Donahue Show. Now it's Countdown.
In the case of 'SpongeBob', KO is expressing his secularism in an arrogant manner, and his opposition to reasonable parental control of children involving attitudes about sex. Unless KO starts doing some smoke-clearing of his own, his smug superiority will leave a lasting bad taste in the mouths of many viewers.
Sex Indoctrination Controversy Heating Up For Olbermann
The SpongeBob SquarePants brouhaha generated as much smoke as heat, at least regarding the details of how it began and who said what. The mass media did a poor job of accurately presenting story. There have since been articles attempting to clear the smoke. Cox News Service did so last Saturday. And James Dobson himself posted this yesterday. My colleague just now posted (below) what Dobson said about Olbermann.
To be fair, the ultra fast-paced "Aaron Brown-on-speed" format of Countdown is not likely to explore any complex debate with fairness. One is hard-pressed to recall the last time it had. Yet the management that just promoted the admirably fair Brian Williams must be pondering whether or not the person they thought they hired---an offbeat, smart and witty news anchor---hasn't devolved into a flippant, disrespectful left-wing ideologue.
It's one thing to have an opinion and invite a guest with the opposite opinion as a sounding board for a good discussion. That's what most cable shows do. But it's quite another to expect anyone to sit through an hour listening to one viewpoint. That used to be the Donahue Show. Now it's Countdown.
In the case of 'SpongeBob', KO is expressing his secularism in an arrogant manner, and his opposition to reasonable parental control of children involving attitudes about sex. Unless KO starts doing some smoke-clearing of his own, his smug superiority will leave a lasting bad taste in the mouths of many viewers.
James Dobson Slams Keith Olbermann
James Dobson of Focus on the Family sets the record straight on the misinformation campaign by Keith Olbermann and his liberal cronies at NBC:
"MSNBC's" Keith Olbermann, one of the most hostile of the commentators, characterized my account of the situation as the goofiest story of the day. He cited a lawyer for the We Are Family Foundation who said that critics of this effort "need medication." Olbermann then added, "We here found it hard to argue with him." It might not surprise you that when one of my listeners wrote Mr. Olbermann a polite but pointed email in response to his comments, he replied by saying that emails such as hers would be "treated with the lack of respect they deserve." He went on to chastise her, and wrote, "...you might ask yourself if your actions are any different than someone in a cult." And some people still wonder why Americans no longer trust the mainstream media!
James Dobson Slams Keith Olbermann
James Dobson of Focus on the Family sets the record straight on the misinformation campaign by Keith Olbermann and his liberal cronies at NBC:
"MSNBC's" Keith Olbermann, one of the most hostile of the commentators, characterized my account of the situation as the goofiest story of the day. He cited a lawyer for the We Are Family Foundation who said that critics of this effort "need medication." Olbermann then added, "We here found it hard to argue with him." It might not surprise you that when one of my listeners wrote Mr. Olbermann a polite but pointed email in response to his comments, he replied by saying that emails such as hers would be "treated with the lack of respect they deserve." He went on to chastise her, and wrote, "...you might ask yourself if your actions are any different than someone in a cult." And some people still wonder why Americans no longer trust the mainstream media!
Loony Left Statisticians Regroup
Kathy Dopp sent me her latest press release. Why exactly I have no idea (maybe because we are the #1 Olbermann blog on the web, Keith reads this site and she is so desperate for another trip to the well that she will even solicit an anti-Keith site) but you will see Dopp is now touting herself as "President" of US Count Votes, a group consisting of some of the usual suspects: like Steven F. Freeman and Josh Mitteldorf. I am sad to see a professor from my alma mater, Notre Dame, on the list.
The release touts the latest "analysis" of the Exit Poll "data" (quotes to indicate that none of the exit poll data has been released so Dopp and her crew are relying on their own homebrew version of data which renders the entire excercise pointless from an academic point of view).
The report is here.
Continue reading for the entire press release.
Press Release:
Monday, January 31, 2005
http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/USCountVotes_Re_Mitofsky-Edison.pdf
Prominent Statisticians Refute 'Explanation' of 2004 U.S. Exit Poll Discrepancies in New Edison/Mitofsky Report and Urge Investigation of U.S. Presidential Election Results.
President Bush won November's election by 2.5% yet exit polls showed Kerry leading by 3%. Which was correct?
"There are statistical indications that a systematic, nationwide shift of 5.5% of the vote may have occurred, and that we'll never get to the bottom of this, unless we gather the data we need for mathematical analysis and open, robust scientific debate.", says Bruce O'Dell, USCountVotes' Vice President.
The study, "Response to Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 Report", was co-authored by a diverse group of professors and academicians specializing in statistics and mathematics. The USCountVotes team included Josh Mitteldorf, Ph.D., Temple University Statistics Department; Kathy Dopp, M.S. in mathematics, USCountVotes President; Steven F. Freeman, Ph.D., Visiting Scholar & Affiliated Faculty, Center for Organizational Dynamics, University of Pennsylvania; Brian Joiner, Ph.D., Professor of Statistics and Director of Statistical Consulting (ret), University of Wisconsin; Frank Stenger, Ph.D. Professor of Numerical Analysis, School of Computing, University of Utah; Richard G. Sheehan, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Finance, University of Notre Dame, Elizabeth Liddle, M.A. (UK) Ph.D. candidate at the University of Nottingham, Paul F. Velleman, Assoc. Professor, Ph.D., Department of Statistical Sciences, Cornell University; Victoria Lovegren, Ph.D., Lecturer, Department of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve University; Campbell B. Read, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Department of Statistical Science, Southern Methodist University. Their study does not support claims made by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International that exit poll errors were to blame for the unprecedented 5.5% discrepancy between exit polls and official 2004 election results.
According to this analysis by a group of senior statisticians, the new data just released by the exit-pollsters shows that the possibility that the overall vote count was substantially corrupted must be taken seriously. “Now we have statistical evidence that these reports were the tip of a national iceberg. The hypothesis that the discrepancy between the exit polls and election results is due to errors in the official election tally is a coherent theory that must be explored,� said statistician Josh Mitteldorf.
Their paper titled "Response to Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 Report" notes that the Edison/Mitofsky report offers no evidence to support their conclusion that Kerry voters “participated in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters�. In fact, the data provided in the Edison/Mitofsky report suggests that the opposite may have been true: Bush strongholds had slightly higher response rates than Kerry strongholds.
The statisticians go on to note that precincts with hand-counted paper ballots showed no statistical discrepancy between the exit polls and the official results, but for other voting technologies, the overall discrepancy was far larger than the polls’ margin of error. The pollsters at Edison/Mitofsky agreed that their 2004 exit polls, for whatever reason, had the poorest accuracy in at least twenty years.
USCountVotes, a nonprofit, non-partisan Utah corporation was founded in December 2004. Its mission is to create and analyze a database containing precinct-level election results for the entire United States; to do a thorough mathematical analysis of the 2004 election results; and to fully investigate the 2004 Presidential election results. USCountVotes actively seeks volunteers and accepts donations to help make this unprecedented civic project a reality – visit www.uscountvotes.org for further information.
For more information, contact Bruce O'Dell, Vice President of US Count Votes, in Minneapolis, MN: bruce@uscountvotes.org 612-309-1330
The statisticians' study is available online at
http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/USCountVotes_Re_Mitofsky-Edison.pdf
The full text of the Edison/Mitofsky report is available at
www.exit-poll.net/election-night/EvaluationJan192005.pdf
Loony Left Statisticians Regroup
Kathy Dopp sent me her latest press release. Why exactly I have no idea (maybe because we are the #1 Olbermann blog on the web, Keith reads this site and she is so desperate for another trip to the well that she will even solicit an anti-Keith site) but you will see Dopp is now touting herself as "President" of US Count Votes, a group consisting of some of the usual suspects: like Steven F. Freeman and Josh Mitteldorf. I am sad to see a professor from my alma mater, Notre Dame, on the list.
The release touts the latest "analysis" of the Exit Poll "data" (quotes to indicate that none of the exit poll data has been released so Dopp and her crew are relying on their own homebrew version of data which renders the entire excercise pointless from an academic point of view).
The report is here.
Continue reading for the entire press release.
Press Release:
Monday, January 31, 2005
http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/USCountVotes_Re_Mitofsky-Edison.pdf
Prominent Statisticians Refute 'Explanation' of 2004 U.S. Exit Poll Discrepancies in New Edison/Mitofsky Report and Urge Investigation of U.S. Presidential Election Results.
President Bush won November's election by 2.5% yet exit polls showed Kerry leading by 3%. Which was correct?
"There are statistical indications that a systematic, nationwide shift of 5.5% of the vote may have occurred, and that we'll never get to the bottom of this, unless we gather the data we need for mathematical analysis and open, robust scientific debate.", says Bruce O'Dell, USCountVotes' Vice President.
The study, "Response to Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 Report", was co-authored by a diverse group of professors and academicians specializing in statistics and mathematics. The USCountVotes team included Josh Mitteldorf, Ph.D., Temple University Statistics Department; Kathy Dopp, M.S. in mathematics, USCountVotes President; Steven F. Freeman, Ph.D., Visiting Scholar & Affiliated Faculty, Center for Organizational Dynamics, University of Pennsylvania; Brian Joiner, Ph.D., Professor of Statistics and Director of Statistical Consulting (ret), University of Wisconsin; Frank Stenger, Ph.D. Professor of Numerical Analysis, School of Computing, University of Utah; Richard G. Sheehan, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Finance, University of Notre Dame, Elizabeth Liddle, M.A. (UK) Ph.D. candidate at the University of Nottingham, Paul F. Velleman, Assoc. Professor, Ph.D., Department of Statistical Sciences, Cornell University; Victoria Lovegren, Ph.D., Lecturer, Department of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve University; Campbell B. Read, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Department of Statistical Science, Southern Methodist University. Their study does not support claims made by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International that exit poll errors were to blame for the unprecedented 5.5% discrepancy between exit polls and official 2004 election results.
According to this analysis by a group of senior statisticians, the new data just released by the exit-pollsters shows that the possibility that the overall vote count was substantially corrupted must be taken seriously. “Now we have statistical evidence that these reports were the tip of a national iceberg. The hypothesis that the discrepancy between the exit polls and election results is due to errors in the official election tally is a coherent theory that must be explored,� said statistician Josh Mitteldorf.
Their paper titled "Response to Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 Report" notes that the Edison/Mitofsky report offers no evidence to support their conclusion that Kerry voters “participated in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters�. In fact, the data provided in the Edison/Mitofsky report suggests that the opposite may have been true: Bush strongholds had slightly higher response rates than Kerry strongholds.
The statisticians go on to note that precincts with hand-counted paper ballots showed no statistical discrepancy between the exit polls and the official results, but for other voting technologies, the overall discrepancy was far larger than the polls’ margin of error. The pollsters at Edison/Mitofsky agreed that their 2004 exit polls, for whatever reason, had the poorest accuracy in at least twenty years.
USCountVotes, a nonprofit, non-partisan Utah corporation was founded in December 2004. Its mission is to create and analyze a database containing precinct-level election results for the entire United States; to do a thorough mathematical analysis of the 2004 election results; and to fully investigate the 2004 Presidential election results. USCountVotes actively seeks volunteers and accepts donations to help make this unprecedented civic project a reality – visit www.uscountvotes.org for further information.
For more information, contact Bruce O'Dell, Vice President of US Count Votes, in Minneapolis, MN: bruce@uscountvotes.org 612-309-1330
The statisticians' study is available online at
http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/USCountVotes_Re_Mitofsky-Edison.pdf
The full text of the Edison/Mitofsky report is available at
www.exit-poll.net/election-night/EvaluationJan192005.pdf
January 30, 2005
Countdown - January 30, 2005 (8:00-9:00 P.M. ET)
'Countdown with Keith Olbermann' for Jan. 30
Host: Keith Olbermann
Read the transcript to the 8 p.m. ET show
Updated: Updated: 2:04 p.m. ET Jan. 31, 2005
Guest: Dilshad Qadir, Rod Nordland, Robin Wright
OLBYWATCH GUIDE: PENDING
Countdown - January 30, 2005 (8:00-9:00 P.M. ET)
'Countdown with Keith Olbermann' for Jan. 30
Host: Keith Olbermann
Read the transcript to the 8 p.m. ET show
Updated: Updated: 2:04 p.m. ET Jan. 31, 2005
Guest: Dilshad Qadir, Rod Nordland, Robin Wright
OLBYWATCH GUIDE: PENDING
January 29, 2005
A Matter of Respect
Keith Olbermann's first commentary on the "Dr. Dobson vs. SpongeBob SquarePants" bruhaha appeared to this contributor to Olbywatch at the time to be merely an easy and opportunistic attack on conservative values. But KO has since become a lightening rod in this highly divisive traditional and religious values debate. Something that perhaps the management at MSNBC may not welcome for one of their news anchors---particularly following an election which in some respects became a national referendum on the issue.
And what pivotal issue of our times triggered the backlash against Olbermann? The silly hoopla over allegations that a children's cartoon character appears to be proselytizing homosexuality! Yes, I do call it silly. I'm as much a secularist as Olbermann. But if I endeavered to become a commentator to be taken seriously, I wouldn't rest my case solely on the easy mockery of a character like Dr. Dobson. Indeed, it appears that cultural traditionalists are grilling Keith more for his smug self-complacency than for his secularist liberal views.
That was precisely the subject raised in yesterday's op-ed by Gary Schneeberger, editor of Family News In Focus, who writes:
". . . when it comes to lobbying liberal journalists like Olbermann, the sad reality is that getting them to acknowledge--let alone to respond respectfully--to our point of view is the longest of long shots." [. . . ] "Giving socially conservative, Christian thought a fair public hearing is an invitation for professional ridicule, an admission that you might not believe anymore that the answers to anything that ails you can be found in your own wit and will, and that of your equally witty, willful colleagues."
"Scour the 'morgues'--i.e., the old clip files--of some of the newspapers where I worked before coming to Christ in 1997, and you'll find the same kind of 'I'm-so-much-cooler-than-you-are' vitriol Olbermann has spewed forth in response to your criticism of his reporting on the SpongeBob story."
(By "your criticism", Schneeberger is referring to an email writing campaign directed at Olbermann by CitizenLink.)
Last night, Eric Deggans' op-ed in the St. Petersburg Times Online singled out Olbermann's "Will SpongeBob make you gay?" commentary as representative of that produced by media elites: By both not understanding the concerns of traditionalists, and by taking an ill-advised attack on a popular cartoon for kids, and using it as a facile means to ridicule conservative and traditional values.
Deggans' piece was balanced, criticizing the use of code words and demonization employed by both sides of the debate. Noteworthy was his quote from liberal professor Barbara McGraw, who has studied this culture war:
"You're not going to have millions of people following something that is completely stupid ... and there is a legitimate point about parents raising their children according to the values they have," [...] "One of (Dobson's) key points is that liberals are using buzz words to promote an agenda that goes beyond race and religion. The mainstream media need to be sensitive to that."
All people wish to be treated with respect and their views taken seriously. One day, Keith may find himself favoring something that the liberal intelligencia opposes. That will be that day Keith will yearn for serious arguments instead of constant ridicule and condescension.
And if at that time, he's no longer priviledged to be a news commentator for a major network, and unable to voice his views to the masses, he might feel as culturally disenfrachised as middle-America feels today.
Update: As astute Olbywatch reader Cecelia points out in comments, while the most vocal of KO's critics may be religious people, this issue is ultimately about the intense desire of all parents---liberal and conservative---to instill in their children the values that they hold, particularly regarding the age-sensitive subject of sexual preference and lifestyles.
"The spirit of liberty is the spirit that is never too certain that it is right" ....Justice Learned Hand.
Something that people without a media megaphone already appreciate, and which Keith may come to appreciate in time.
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